Recent mortgage rate trend.

Mortgage Rates in May 2026

Mortgage rates have climbed back to near 12-month highs, and the same narrative keeps circulating: “Just wait for Kevin Warsh — he takes over as Fed chair and everything changes.” That’s wishful thinking, and here’s why.
The Fed is far more likely to hold rates steady — and potentially raise them — than to cut in the second half of this year.
April CPI came in at 3.8% annually, the highest inflation reading since May 2023, rising half a percentage point from March. But that’s not even the most troubling data point of the week.
The April PPI — which tracks what it costs producers to make the goods you eventually buy — surged 6% annually, its largest 12-month gain since December 2022, with a monthly jump of 1.4%, the biggest single-month increase since March 2022. Don’t expect manufacturers to absorb that. Those costs get passed to consumers, and economists are already revising their May CPI forecasts upward as a result.
The root cause is the war in the Middle East. Iran’s disruption of the Strait of Hormuz has effectively shut down about 20% of global oil supplies, and Brent crude has surged more than 55% since the conflict began. Economists say the inflationary effects of the war could take weeks or months to unwind — even if more oil flows resume, it may be two to nine months before the full supply chain normalizes.
As for the idea that Warsh will ride in and cut rates: the environment won’t let him. Warsh officially became Fed chair on May 15, taking the helm at a time when inflation has been running above the Fed’s 2% target for months — even before the Middle East conflict drove fuel costs higher. The FOMC has held rates steady for three straight meetings. Markets are currently pricing in roughly a 30% chance of a rate hike by December — not a cut. That’s not a majority probability, but it tells you where the risk is tilted.
Rates are more likely to stay elevated or move higher than to come down anytime soon. Plan accordingly. se. This democratizes design for non-technical users while offering developers a way to extend WordPress functionality and provide more options to their clients.